Bank of England expert predicts future UK property boom

An ageing population and an increasing number of immigrants are set to fuel a property price boom in the UK, it is claimed.

According to Professor David Miles, who sits on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee which sets interest rates, people will also be older when they buy their first property because of changes in the mortgage industry due to the credit crunch.

In a research paper he says that the trend of rising real incomes and the likelihood of rising population density means the UK should anticipate a rising trajectory for real house prices over the longer term. But he does not indicate exactly when this would happen.

‘This is particularly likely in a country like the UK where population density looks set to rise relatively fast,’ he explained, pointing out that one in six people currently alive in the UK expected to celebrate their 100th birthday and the population is set to rise.

At present, 62.2million people live in Britain, but the Office for National Statistics expects this number to increase to 67.2 million by 2020 and to 71.4million by 2030.

Over the past 25 years, house prices have reached levels which leave many people unable to afford to buy their own home. In 1986, the average home in a British city cost £35,209. Today the same property would cost around £170,000.

In his report on population growth, house prices and mortgages, Miles says that the changes to the mortgage market over recent years will be permanent. ‘The first effect is likely to be prospective buyers postpone their purchase, while they save more to accumulate a larger deposit. As a result, the average age at which people would buy their first home will rise, and the  share of owner occupied houses will fall,’ he explained.

He believes that the changes in the mortgage market is not a bad thing and the fact that banks and building societies insist on large deposits to get the best loan deals is not a sign of a damaged market, or one which is not functioning properly.

He singled out the 100% mortgage deals, prevalent during the last housing boom which allowed people to buy without saving a penny for a deposit. ‘It probably never made sense for there to be 100% mortgages. There may be no price at which it makes commercial sense for such a loan to be available,’ he said.

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Edinburgh’s 509% house-price boom

HOUSE prices in Edinburgh have rocketed more than five-fold over the past 25 years – one of the highest increases in the UK.

Across Scottish cities, property values have shot up by an average of 351 per cent over the period, exceeding the increase of 347 per cent for the UK as a whole, according to the Bank of Scotland.

Edinburgh’s 509 per cent increase is the third-highest of any city in Britain, behind Truro at 550 per cent and Westminster, London, at 522 per cent.

Inverness is also in the top ten, experiencing a rise of 450 per cent.

“With an increasing and more affluent population in Edinburgh over the last 25 years, and strong economic growth for much of this time, it is no surprise to see the city near the top of this table,” said Tony Perriam, director of residential sales at Rettie & Co.

Nitesh Patel, housing economist at Bank of Scotland, said: “Cities have typically seen higher house price growth than the UK average over the past 25 years.

“City house prices are generally supported by demand from those looking to gain from the economic and lifestyle benefits often associated with residing in major urban areas.”

The study, carried out ahead of a new round of applications for city status to mark the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee, found that towns which had become cities since 1986 – including Inverness and Stirling – performed above average.

The 26 towns which have applied for city status this year have, on average, not experienced as rapid a house price growth over the last quarter of a century as existing cities. Scotland’s applicant, Perth, has seen prices rise by 372 per cent since 1986 – well above the average for all applicant towns of 345 per cent.

Ms Patel added: “The performance of cities in Scotland has been similar, with four of the six cities outperforming the Scottish average. Edinburgh and Inverness have seen very strong house price growth, both featuring in the top ten UK cities since 1986. Glasgow and Stirling, however, have seen average prices rise more slowly than for Scotland as a whole.

“There are, therefore, no guarantees that city status benefits its population’s homeowners.”

The experience of those towns that became cities in 2002 to coincide with the Queen’s Golden Jubilee has been more mixed.

Only Newport, Wales, has recorded stronger price growth than its region since 2002, while Preston, Stirling and Lisburn, Northern Ireland, have all underperformed relative to their regions. During the decade prior to 2002, both Stirling and Lisburn outperformed their regions.

Sarah Speirs, director of RICS Scotland, said: “Property in sought-after areas always attracts more buyers and therefore sells for a premium. Cities that offer good jobs, respected schools and a range of social and family activities will always be popular with investors and owner/ occupiers, so it’s no surprise that house prices have risen so much in the past 25 years.

“However, city status alone is not enough to push up prices. The city has to have enough going for it to attract buyers and investors.”

For more information regarding UK residential property investment, please visit www.grantpropertyinvestment.com or contact us directly on +44 (0)131 2473131

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House Prices and Rents to Rise as Homebuilding Figures Stall

The Daily Telegraph, By Ian Cowie February 24th, 2012

A shortage of new homes is expected to push house prices up.

House prices and rental yields will be squeezed upward by a shortage of new homes, experts claim, following the latest production figures from the National House Building Council (NHBC).

Despite various Government initiatives to encourage new building and help first time buyers beat the mortgage famine, the NHBC reports a sharp contraction in public sector residential construction, which fell by 20pc over the year to last month. Meanwhile, private sector production of new homes increased by less than half as much – by 9pc – to bring the total to 7,831 new residences completed in January; little changed on the year before.

Mark Posniak, a director of the mortgage provider Dragonfly Property Finance said: “These latest figures drive home the paralysis at the heart of the property market.

Tracy Kellett, managing director of BDI Home Finders added: “The lack of new homes being built says all you need to know about whether the Government’s initiatives are working. Clearly not is the answer.

“It’s a well-documented fact that there are simply not enough homes for our growing population. The lack of new homes being built is keeping house prices artificially high and causing rents to rise across all sectors.

“For landlords and homeowners, this is a good thing, for aspiring homeowners and tenants, quite the opposite.

Grant Property Investment have helped clients from 30 countries invest in over 1,700 properties across 12 UK cities. We’re the UK’s leading provider of residential property Investment and Management. Our clients range from individuals to institutional investors, with one property to £100mil property funds.

For any further information about Grant Property Investment, Property Investment or Buy-to-Let mortgages please Contact us.

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Buy to let "BOOM"

Buy-to-let boom shows no signs of stopping as landlords snap up property worth £160bn.........

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2098971/Buy-let-boom-shows-signs-stopping-landlords-snap-property-worth-160bn.html#ixzz1mYmqZYmA

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Welcome to 2012!

Hi All,

I thought I'd drop you a quick personal note to thank you for all your support in 2011, and to wish you a very Happy New Year. I hope that 2012 proves to be a prosperous and fun year for you.


If one of your New Year's resolutions is to invest in 2012, then let me know. I'm pleased to say the team were busy over the second part of December, which is traditionally a great time of year to pick up some brilliant bargains, if only because everyone else has switched off for Christmas! This year is no exception, and I'd be delighted to put you in the loop as to what is currently available.

I look forward to working with you in 2012.

Kind Regards,

Peter Grant
CEO
Grant Property Investment

For the latest update on our property portfolio, please visit our website.

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What makes residential property a good investment?

Hi All,

I thought it worth giving a brief update on what’s happening in the world of property. It’s an interesting picture!

While the world around is going through turbulent times, with high stock market volatility, the property Investment market has grown on several fronts.

1. Property prices rose by 0.8% in October, compared to October 2010, according to Nationwide 
2. The number of mortgages written in October rose to a three year high, helped by a strong growth in the mortgage products available. 

In fact it’s not unusual. History shows that residential property has very low volatility. When I look back at the major events of the past 15 years, (such as the 1991 recession, 9/11, the dot com bubble), while the stock markets invariably crashed, property either rose, or worst case went flat for a period. The attached graph shows the big picture.

The big impact was when mortgage lending was pulled back in 2008. The market went back by around 18%, and then rebounded by around half that figure. It’s been flat for the past 18 months, but now seems to be rising again.

But let’s not forget it’s a buyers market. On the ground we are finding several things.

1. We can drive a bargain. House sellers in need to sell quickly are more likely to accept a lower price, because of the Euro zone headlines. 
2. Yields are at a record high. Even in Prime areas we are able to get 7% - 9% yields (and 100% occupancy). 
3. Smart investors can smell a bargain. In November so far enquiries and purchases are up at record levels. 

I hope this helps paint a useful picture of what’s going on. It’s certainly a good time to cherry pick a bargain. If we can help, we’d be delighted to do so. The headlines all indicate investors becoming more active. The press has even been highlighting property as a safe haven – with high returns.

Visit our website for further information about us.

Kind Regards,

Peter Grant
CEO

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UK Property Investing - Buy to let

We’ve had a big response to our update on bank lending, and we’ve been asked a lot of questions around the Investment Market. I’m pleased to share some general advice around buying and investing.


1. Timings. In general it’s a good time to invest. It’s still a buyers market, and there’s great value to be had.

2. Areas. The best areas to head for are city centre. They are experiencing the best yields and the highest occupancy. The more prime the better.

3. Type of property. Traditional property has always been the best performing compared to new build (measured across both yield and capital appreciation).

4. Rental Market. There have been lots of headlines around a strengthening rental market. Scotland is generally performing better than England. The Student Market is particularly buoyant. Prime city centre areas are best.

5. Yields. Average yields in the industry are 5%. Larger traditional property in city centres gives a yield of 7% and above (that’s an improvement of around 20% due to lower prices and higher rents).

6. Capital appreciation. The long term average is 7% pa. On a geared return that’s a 28% return.
Banks are more active again. The number of buy to let products rose by 26% in the last quarter. B2L lending has increased by 40% on the previous year.

Everything seems to point to investing – but investing wisely. Buying in good areas and at a good price is key.

If we can help, let us know. www.grantpropertyinvestment.com

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