An ageing population and an increasing number of immigrants are set to fuel a property price boom in the UK, it is claimed.
According to Professor David Miles, who sits on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee which sets interest rates, people will also be older when they buy their first property because of changes in the mortgage industry due to the credit crunch.
In a research paper he says that the trend of rising real incomes and the likelihood of rising population density means the UK should anticipate a rising trajectory for real house prices over the longer term. But he does not indicate exactly when this would happen.
‘This is particularly likely in a country like the UK where population density looks set to rise relatively fast,’ he explained, pointing out that one in six people currently alive in the UK expected to celebrate their 100th birthday and the population is set to rise.
At present, 62.2million people live in Britain, but the Office for National Statistics expects this number to increase to 67.2 million by 2020 and to 71.4million by 2030.
Over the past 25 years, house prices have reached levels which leave many people unable to afford to buy their own home. In 1986, the average home in a British city cost £35,209. Today the same property would cost around £170,000.
In his report on population growth, house prices and mortgages, Miles says that the changes to the mortgage market over recent years will be permanent. ‘The first effect is likely to be prospective buyers postpone their purchase, while they save more to accumulate a larger deposit. As a result, the average age at which people would buy their first home will rise, and the share of owner occupied houses will fall,’ he explained.
He believes that the changes in the mortgage market is not a bad thing and the fact that banks and building societies insist on large deposits to get the best loan deals is not a sign of a damaged market, or one which is not functioning properly.
He singled out the 100% mortgage deals, prevalent during the last housing boom which allowed people to buy without saving a penny for a deposit. ‘It probably never made sense for there to be 100% mortgages. There may be no price at which it makes commercial sense for such a loan to be available,’ he said.
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